초록

2012년부터 본격적인 RPS 시행과 관련하여 발전차액 지원을 받지 못하는 신규 태양광발전 사업자를 위하여 RPS와 연계한 태양광발전 사업의 경제성을 비교 분석해 본다. 기존의 대부분 투자 사업에 대한 경제성 분석은 현금흐름할인법 (Discount Cash Flow)을 활용하였다. 현금흐름할인법은 불확실성 하에 경영 혹은 관리상의 유연성을 가치평가에 제대로 반영하지 못한다. 실물옵션가격결정법은 금융자산을 대상으로 사용하는 옵션가격결정모형을 실물자산에 적용한 방법으로서 불확실성이 매우 높아서 유연성이 요구되는 태양광발전 사업에 반영할 수 있는 장점을 지닌다.

Abstract

This study reviewed how the changes of the government policy on solar power generation projects affected the annual mandatory quotas of the regulated power providers under the RPS (renewable portfolio standard) system and analysed economic feasibility of the investment for meeting their quotas as compared to the case of non-regulated power providers. The analysis results showed that under the discount rate of 7.5%, which was used for the annual national electricity plans for the recent years, both the regulated and non-regulated power providers achieved economic feasibility under both the NPV (net present value) method and the real option pricing method. It was also shown that higher profitability was attained by non-regulated power providers than by their regulated counterparts, which can be attributable to the fact that regulated providers are required to out-source 50% of the total quota. The results of this study are considered to be useful for establishing a meaningful mid term or long term strategy for the future of solar power generation linked to the current RPS system.

• Keywords: NPV, Real option, Option to grow